With just four years of NFL experience, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is already putting together a convincing case that says he deserves to be respected
as one of the top signal-callers in the NFL. And he's on a pace to become
not only the best Steelers quarterback of all-time, but one of the best
quarterbacks to ever play the game.
A subscriber at SteelCityInsider.com, our Pittsburgh Steelers site at
Scout.com, recently submitted a question about Roethlisberger's statistics in comparison
with other top quarterbacks in the league. And he also wondered how the
four-year veteran compares to some of the all-time best quarterbacks
statistically after their first four seasons in the NFL. As I dug through the data, the results
were both interesting and eye-opening.
2007
To gauge the former first-round pick's most recent performance against his
current-day peers, I took a cursory look at the usual statistics, but then
drilled down to get a more in-depth perspective.
The commonly accessible stats show that Roethlisberger finished seventh in the
league in completion percentage with a 65.3 percent success rate. New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady finished at the top (68.9 percent) while the New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees,
the Green Bay Packers'
Brett Favre, and the Indianapolis Colts' Peyton Manning were the most prominent
names in the spots above Roethlisberger. While he finished 14th in total
yards (3,154) -- an important statistic for fantasy football owners, but not
so important when you're trying to get an accurate read on an individual
quarterback's skills -- Roethlisberger finished fourth in the league in yards per attempt
(7.9) trailing only Tom Brady, Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo,
and Manning. He was third in touchdown passes
(32) behind Brady's 50 and Romo's 36. And his 11 interceptions placed him as the
third-best out of quarterbacks who threw at least 400 pass attempts in 2007.
Brady threw just eight while the Philadelphia Eagles' Donovan McNabb
surrendered just seven.
One of the statistics from his 2007 campaign that was particularly impressive
was
the percentage of passes that Roethlisberger threw that resulted in a first down
for his club. At 41.6 percent, he set the pace for all quarterbacks in the
league, nosing out Brady at 41.5 percent.
Roethlisberger on the run against the Cleveland Browns.
Rick Stewart/Getty Images |
But working against Roethlisberger's image among the top quarterbacks in the game
is his frequency of taking a sack. In 2007, his 47 sacks were second-worst
only to Detroit Lions quarterback Jon Kitna's 51. And if there's anything that
is holding Big Ben from attaining his rightful position among the league's elite
QBs, it's the fact that he just doesn't know when to cut his losses and throw
the ball away. No matter how poorly their offensive lines may have blocked on a
particular play, former great quarterbacks such as Miami's Dan Marino and
current stars such as Peyton Manning help their teams by getting rid of the
football more often rather than risking a substantial loss in field position. Roethlisberger's 47 sacks set his offense back 347
yards last year, more than any QB in the game.
That said, the Steelers quarterback was consistently in the top fourth in
2007 in a number of key performance areas that should also be considered
when evaluating quarterbacks:
Red zone passing: Roethlisberger was tied for sixth in completion
percentage (58.3) out of all quarterbacks who had at least 40 attempts
inside the red zone. New Orleans' Drew Brees led the league with
an amazing 71.4-percent completion mark, while
Brady, Favre, Cincinnati Bengals QB Carson Palmer and Jacksonville Jaguars' QB
David Garrard also finished higher. While Roethlisberger tied Brees for
second place in red zone touchdown passes with 23, the Steelers quarterback did it in
just 72
attempts versus 84 by Brees. Brady had 34 total red
zone touchdown passes, but it took him 112 attempts. His resulting 30.4-percent
conversion rate was actually lower than Roethlisberger's 31.9 percent. The only NFL
quarterback to post a more impressive red zone touchdown success rate was
Arizona's Kurt Warner, who converted 20 of his 60 red zone pass attempts into
touchdowns (33.3 percent).
Roethlisberger's two red zone interceptions
put him in a tie for seventh-most last year, and his six sacks put him as the second-worst
behind Kitna's seven. So overall, his red zone performance placed him eighth in
the league with a passer rating of 97.5. Brees (116.8), Brady (110.1), Favre (102.0),
and Palmer (101.3) were among the group of passers who placed higher.
Third-down passing: Third down is a pivotal play where a misfire means
you're heading back to the bench and losing an opportunity to score. Roethlisberger posted the
third-best passer rating (107.8) on third downs in 2007,
trailing only Garrard (128.8) and Brady (115.6).
His completion percentage on third down (64.6 percent) was fifth-best in the
league behind Garrard (71.6), Brees (66.2), the New York Jets' Chad Pennington
(64.9), and Brady (64.7). But Roethlisberger's 17 third-down sacks translated
into the third-worst rating in the league.
Fourth-quarter passing: A quarterback's performance in the final
period can often be the deciding factor in the game -- highlight or lowlight
moments that create legendary stories
that will be recalled for decades.
Out of the QBs who threw at least 80
passes during the fourth quarter in 2007, Roethlisberger
finished sixth with a very respectable 102.0 passer rating. Brady
(114.4), the Houston Texans' Sage Rosenfels (112.9), Manning (108.8), Seattle Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck (103.8), and Romo (102.5) earned higher marks.
Roethlisberger's 64.8-percent completion percentage was only eighth-best, trailing
quarterbacks such as Manning, Brees, Seattle Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck and Brady. And his six fourth-quarter touchdown passes put him in a tie for ninth
behind some of the same QBs -- Brady, Romo, Favre, Hasselbeck, Manning, and
Brees.
Roethlisberger tries to escape from Cincinnati LB Landon Johnson.
Andy Lyons/Getty Images |
Passing against the blitz: Roethlisberger keeps his cool in the face
of danger and remains confident that he can make a play despite the added
pressure. It's a a trait that is both a blessing and a curse for the Steelers
QB.
Believing that he can make a play with players breathing down his neck certainly contributed to Roethlisberger's 17 sacks in blitz situations. And that
put him in a tie with Chicago Bears QB Rex Grossman and the New York Jets' Kellen Clemens for the most times dropped to the turf when facing the blitz last
season. But that same
determination and optimism helped him finish second in the league in passer rating
(105.8) in that same situation. Brady was the only quarterback to
handle the blitz better, posting a 118.7 rating.
Passing yards at the catch
An overlooked category that should be considered anytime you're comparing
quarterbacks is how much yardage is gained by the length of their completed throws
versus how much they're being helped by the receivers who tack on yards
while running with the ball after the catch. Among quarterbacks with at least
1000 pass attempts over the past four years, Roethlisberger is second only to
Peyton Manning in yards-at-the-catch average with 7.7 yards versus the Colts
quarterbacks' 7.9 yards. By comparison, the Patriots' Tom Brady is 12th at 6.8
yards.
After four years
While few would debate that Roethlisberger is easily in the top fourth of
the active quarterbacks, I'd go as far as
to put him in a tie as the fifth-best in the game today along with Tony Romo.
Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Brett Favre (assuming he returns for
2008) are performing at a higher level. And Carson Palmer is right on
Roethlisberger and Romo's heels.
But let's be clear on this point -- Roethlisberger has only been in the NFL
for four years while the others have anywhere from five to 17 years of experience.
And the young Steelers quarterback is already on par with -- or ahead of --
numbers posted by some of the game's greatest quarterbacks from the past 30
years.
Below you'll see how Roethlisberger's numbers after four seasons compare with
the Colts' Peyton Manning, the Dolphins' Dan Marino, the Broncos' John Elway,
the Patriots' Tom Brady, the Bills' Jim Kelly, the Cowboys' Troy Aikman, the
Packers' Brett Favre and the 49ers' Joe Montana when they were each entering
their fifth NFL season. While other amazing quarterbacks such as Steve Young
were certainly deserving to be in the mix, the eight quarterbacks selected will
provide a valid point of reference.
Completion Percent: Roethlisberger's 63.2 percent completion rate is
better than any of the elite eight's completion percentages after four seasons.
He barely nudged out Joe Montana (63.1) and is just slightly ahead of Brett
Favre (62.3). Tom Brady (61.9), Peyton Manning (61.0), Dan Marino (60.9),
Troy Aikman (60.2) and Jim Kelly (59.2) weren't far behind, but John Elway
(54.0) completed almost ten percent less of his passes than Roethlisberger.
Yards: Roethlisberger's 11,673 yards isn't in the same
arena with Manning's 16,418 or Marino's 16,177. But it's good enough for fourth
place behind Kelly's 12,901 yards. That means that the Pittsburgh QB finished
higher than Aikman (10,527), Favre (10,412), Brady (10,233), and Montana (8,069).
Roethlisberger jogs off the field after a Steelers victory.
Andy Lyons/Getty Images |
Touchdowns: If you compare the quarterbacks based on total touchdown
passes over their first four seasons, Big Ben places third with 84 scores behind
Marino (142) and Manning (111). But he is second only to Marino in the percent of
his passes resulting in a touchdown with 5.8 percent compared to the former Dolphin
great's 6.9 percent. Manning tossed an even 5.0 percent for touchdowns,
third-best out of the group. Joe Montana put up just 52 scores but that was 4.6
percent of the passes he threw during his first four years. Brady had 69 TD
passes (4.5 percent), Favre posted 70 (4.4 percent), Elway threw 66 (3.8
percent), Kelly logged 81 (3.6 percent) and Aikman had 54 (3.5 percent).
Interceptions: All of the elite eight except Aikman (3.9 percent, 60
INTs) had a lower interception percentage than Roethlisberger's 3.8 percent. But
his total of 54 interceptions thrown at this point in his career puts him right
around the middle of the group. Not surprisingly, Tom Brady (2.5 percent, 38
INTs) and Joe Montana (2.8 percent, 32 INTs) were the best at keeping the ball
away from the opponents' defensive backs in their early years. The rest of the group posted results
just slightly better than the Steelers QB with Marino at 3.3 percent (67 INTs),
Favre at 3.4 percent (53 INTs), Manning and Kelly both at 3.6 percent (81 and 63
INTs, respectively), and Elway at 3.7 percent (65 INTs).
Sacks: As mentioned earlier, this is an area where Roethlisberger
falls a bit short and needs to improve to help his team as well as his
stature among the game's top quarterbacks. He's already been sacked
146 times, 16 more than Buffalo's Jim Kelly (130), a player who had that same
blue-collar toughness and never-say-die outlook that Roethlisberger brings to the field. John
Elway's 122 sacks during his first four years wasn't anything to brag about
either. Troy Aikman (113), Tom Brady (104), and Brett Favre (96) had more of an
average experience during their early years, while Marino (58), Montana (61),
and Manning (85), learned early that avoiding the sack was essential to maintaining
good field position and staying healthy.
Passer rating: People have varying opinions about the validity of the
league's passer rating system, but you can't ignore it totally. Roethlisberger's
92.5 score after four seasons places him second in this group behind Dan Marino
(95.2). Montana placed third with a rating of 88.0, followed by Brady (85.9),
Favre (85.2), Manning (85.1), Kelly (82.7), Aikman (76.4), and the late-blooming
Elway (71.9).
What's it all mean?
The bottom line is that Ben Roethlisberger is a quarterback who deserves
respect today, and is also a player you should keep an eye on over the next few
years. If he continues his development in similar fashion to the top
quarterbacks referenced in this analysis, he'll easily become one of the top
three to four at his position by
the time he's completed another four years of his career.
With Tom Brady entering his ninth season, Manning preparing for his 11th,
Brett Favre possibly finished, and even Drew Brees getting ready for his eighth
campaign, Roethlisberger has the opportunity to climb even further up the charts
over the next three to four seasons. And if he can stay healthy and productive,
he would then be in a position to make a run at earning a bust in the Hall of
Fame among the other great NFL quarterbacks.
For more coverage of the Steelers, visit SteelCityInsider.com, our Pittsburgh site at
Scout.com.
A member of the Pro Football Writers of America, Ed Thompson's player interviews and NFL features
are published across the Scout.com network and at FOXSports.com. You can contact him by email
through this link.
Statistics referenced in this article are provided by STATS, LLC. Copyright 2008
by STATS, LLC. Any use or distribution of such Licensed Materials without the
express written consent of STATS is strictly prohibited.
